The clean energy transition is accelerating among energy-importing nations at three times the speed of fossil fuel exporters, according to the tenth edition of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook. Governments facing supply disruptions are actively expanding domestic renewable power to decrease dependence on imported oil and gas.
Over the past five years, the non-fossil share in the primary energy mix of importing regions grew by 2.2 percentage points, while exporting regions registered an increase of only 0.7 percentage points. Consequently, China, India, and Europe are transitioning significantly faster toward alternative sources than North America, Russia, and the Middle East.
Divergence in the Clean Energy Transition
Supply security concerns have intensified following disruptions in maritime corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz. In response, importing nations are moving capital toward electrification, battery storage, and local renewable installations to protect their domestic economy.
“Energy security is redrawing the map of the energy transition. Importing regions are accelerating electrification, renewables and storage to reduce their exposure to the most insecure fossil-fuel markets.”
Ditlev Engel, CEO – Energy Systems at DNV
Supply Disruptions and Long-Term Oil Projections
DNV revised its long-term forecast for global petroleum supply. The Middle East is projected to supply approximately 40% of global oil production in 2050, down from the 50% forecast in the previous year’s outlook. A prolonged regional conflict through 2030 could lower global oil and gas demand by 4% to 6%, permanently weakening fossil fuel consumption as alternatives take over.
Technology Divides and Rising Electricity Demands
Mature renewable solutions are expanding rapidly due to falling capital costs. Over the past five years, global installed battery storage capacity surged 14-fold. Conversely, higher-cost technologies face setbacks; DNV reduced its long-term forecasts for hydrogen and carbon capture by 29% and 15% respectively due to constrained policy support.
Nuclear power remains an exception, with installed nuclear capacity projected to rise 30% over the coming decade and 170% by 2060. Meanwhile, the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and data centers is adding new load requirements. Data center electricity demand is forecast to expand from 400 TWh in 2025 to 1,100 TWh by 2030, though it will remain below total demand additions from electric vehicle charging.
Emissions Trajectory and Global Outlook
Despite widespread progress in power generation, the current trajectory of the clean energy transition remains insufficient to fulfill the Paris Agreement. DNV estimates that energy-related emissions will decline 44% by mid-century, pointing toward 2.3°C of global warming, with net-zero emissions delayed until the 2090s.
