DHL Express – Global Trade Growth Accelerates and Globalization Sets New Record
The latest DHL Globalization Tracker report shows that the global expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is giving international commerce strong momentum. Released on October 8, 2026, by DHL and New York University Stern School of Business, the study tracks cross-border flows using 30 million data points. In addition, global goods trade expanded faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year over the past 15 years, outside the post-pandemic rebound.
AI Hardware Demand Drives Global Trade
Trade in goods required for artificial intelligence infrastructure, including semiconductors and network hardware, served as the primary catalyst. According to analysis from the WTO and OECD, these goods accounted for 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, rising to 76% in the first quarter of 2026.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs. Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time.”
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express
Meanwhile, overall cross-border integration reached a record level of 25.8% on the index in 2025. Information flows registered the highest degree of internationalization, followed by capital and trade flows.
Regional Trade Shifts and Middle East Disruptions
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth globally, expanding 24% during the first five months of 2026. Europe followed with 12%, while Sub-Saharan Africa achieved an 11% increase. In contrast, regional conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduced trade values by 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates over the same period.
“While the recent disruption has had an impact, this does not change our long-term view: the region, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular, remains a key growth market with significant future potential.”
Abdulaziz Busbate, CEO Middle East and North Africa, DHL Express
Furthermore, DHL highlighted its planned investment of more than 500 million euros across the Middle East to support resilient logistics corridors.
US-China Decoupling Patterns Inside DHL Globalization Tracker
According to findings in the DHL Globalization Tracker, direct commerce between the United States and China dropped from 3.5% of global trade in 2015 to 1.6% in early 2026. However, third-country imports into the United States continue to incorporate Chinese components, keeping indirect dependence stable through 2024. Most United States allies have also retained their commercial links with China, preventing a clean global split.
Consequently, United States tariff increases had limited global effect because the nation accounted for only 13% of world imports, with roughly half exempt as of August 2026. Most trading partners avoided broad retaliation, opting instead to sign agreements with alternative partners in the global economy.
Trade Projections Through 2029
Looking ahead, global merchandise trade is forecast to grow by an average of 3.4% annually through 2029. This projection exceeds the 2.7% annual growth rate seen over the previous decade. Specifically, researchers note that corporate supply networks have adjusted quickly across global routes, supported by new investments in regional logistics hubs and digital telecommunications networks.
The DHL Globalization Tracker confirms that global integration continues to expand despite localized geopolitical disruptions.
