Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro
The emergence of lab-made gold is unlikely to disrupt international commodity supplies or price structures in the near future. Recent claims from fusion technology startup Marathon Fusion suggested that high-energy neutrons could transmute mercury into gold. However, market analyst Nagham Hassan from the investment platform etoro stated that commercial hurdles remain insurmountable for now.
Nuclear transmutation has been scientifically proven for over a century through established physical principles. Specifically, fusion reactors generate energetic neutrons capable of altering specific mercury isotopes into precious metal atoms. Nevertheless, transforming theoretical physics into an economically viable industrial operation presents severe operational difficulties.
Evaluating lab-made gold against mined output
According to predictive modelling from Marathon Fusion, a thermal fusion plant could generate around two tonnes of gold annually for each gigawatt of power. Consequently, an operational facility producing one gigawatt of electricity might yield approximately five tonnes each year. In contrast, global gold mining operations produce more than 3,600 tonnes annually, according to official figures from the World Gold Council.
Because mining supplies dominate global volume, fusion-generated material would represent only a tiny fraction of global trading activity. Hassan explained that the limited volume prevents this alternative supply from exerting meaningful downward pressure on broad markets. In addition, existing commodity exchanges in the economy rely on steady trade flows that experimental reactors cannot currently match.
Technical hurdles and radioactive storage requirements
Beyond small production volumes, physical obstacles complicate commercial distribution. Commercial fusion energy facilities do not currently exist at operational scale. Furthermore, newly transmuted materials retain significant levels of residual radioactivity after synthesis.
Company simulations indicate that output would require safe storage for up to 18 years before satisfying consumer safety standards. Moreover, sourcing the specific form of mercury necessary for the reaction remains difficult and financially burdensome. As a result, commercial viability remains doubtful when storage fees and raw material costs are combined.
“The biggest barriers are not just technological. Even under optimistic production scenarios, the amount of gold generated would be limited compared with existing mining output. The additional costs and potential waiting period before the gold could be sold make it difficult to see this becoming a competitive source of supply anytime soon.”
Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro
Contrasting industrial diamonds with precious metals
Industry observers have drawn comparisons between synthetic bullion and lab-grown diamonds, which disrupted jewelry markets over the past decade. Wholesale diamond prices dropped between 75% and 90% as dedicated manufacturing facilities expanded output. However, Hassan highlighted that lab-made gold operates under entirely different economic parameters.
Synthetic diamonds share an identical chemical structure with mined stones and rely on mature manufacturing methods. Conversely, transmutation requires expensive nuclear facilities that remain unproven commercially. Meanwhile, modern multi-asset trading apps continue to facilitate retail gold trading without factoring in synthetic threats.
Market outlook for commodity investors
For everyday retail investors, current developments suggest that gold supply fundamentals will stay unchanged. Although advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and fusion attract speculative interest, physical gold markets respond primarily to central bank reserves and macroeconomic trends. Hassan concluded that investors must separate early laboratory demonstrations from genuine supply developments that shift market pricing.
Therefore, physical bullion maintains its traditional status in portfolios without imminent threat from lab-made gold. Until commercial fusion reactors demonstrate cost-effective yields and overcome lengthy radioactive storage times, standard supply chains will continue to dictate global market values.
